>>> chs skywarn - NOAA Service Account <chs.skywarn@noaa.gov> 2/9/2014 4:47 PM >>>
Good afternoon,
We are closely monitoring the potential for another winter weather event, mainly for Tuesday Night through Wednesday Night (maybe even early Thursday in some places).
An arctic high pressure wedge will develop inland during the early
to middle part of the upcoming week in wake of a cold front that moves
through later Monday. Low pressure will develop along the front late Tuesday Night and Wednesday
off the east or northeast Florida coast, and will lift northeast. And a
second low will also form either in the northeast Gulf of Mexico or off
the Florida northeast coast late Wednesday and Wednesday Night, also lifting northeast. Rain will develop in advance of the first area of low pressure Tuesday and will continue through Wednesday Night or even early Thursday
in association with the second low. As colder air spills into the area
from north and northwest to south and southeast, the rain will mix with
and then change over to freezing rain across at least parts of the area Tuesday Night and Wednesday and continuing into Wednesday
Night. Accumulating ice is likely, especially along our northwest
counties. However, additional counties could also eventually be affected
if the colder air plunges further south and southeast. This may
eventually include the Charleston, Beaufort and Savannah areas. It is
still a little too early for any watches, but if the situation is still
the same on Monday, a Winter Storm Watch will be necessary.
It is still a little too early to determine exact amounts at this
time given some uncertainty on the strength of the cold air, but our
latest thinking is that 1/10 to 1/4 inch of ice is likely along the
northwest tier of our forecast area, with trace amounts further
southeast. However, accumulating freezing rain is certainly possible
further south and east, and amounts in the northwest may even be higher.
Freezing rain will begin late Tuesday Night and continue into Wednesday Night.
All of southern South Carolina and southeast Georgia may eventually
be impacted, at least to some extent. As of late this afternoon the
highest chances for accumulating ice will be for the following counties:
Berkeley, Dorchester, Colleton, Hampton, Allendale, Screven and
Jenkins. However, the colder air may penetrate further south and east,
and ice may also become a problem for other counties.
Significant impacts are possible, especially in regards to travel
due to ice accumulations. Roads, bridges and/or overpasses may be shut
down. Ice accumulation may bring down trees, tree branches and power
lines. Power outages are likely.
Our confidence is increasing that winter weather will impact the
area, with highest confidence across our northwest tier of inland
counties. However, there is still the potential for winter weather to
impact locations further south and east, including the coastal counties,
where confidence is currently moderate. Impacts could be significant,
with the most likely weather hazard being freezing rain (ice).
Regards,
Pete Mohlin and John Quagliariello
Senior Meteorologists
NWS Charleston, SC
http://weather.gov/chs
http://weather.gov/chs
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