Sunday, February 9, 2014

This just landed in my work email. Tuesday night might be rough. Or not. I'm not bringing my plants back in, they can just die at this point.

>>> chs skywarn - NOAA Service Account <chs.skywarn@noaa.gov> 2/9/2014 4:47 PM >>>
Good afternoon,
We are closely monitoring the potential for another winter weather event, mainly for Tuesday Night through Wednesday Night (maybe even early Thursday in some places).
Overview
An arctic high pressure wedge will develop inland during the early to middle part of the upcoming week in wake of a cold front that moves through later Monday. Low pressure will develop along the front late Tuesday Night and Wednesday off the east or northeast Florida coast, and will lift northeast. And a second low will also form either in the northeast Gulf of Mexico or off the Florida northeast coast late Wednesday and Wednesday Night, also lifting northeast. Rain will develop in advance of the first area of low pressure Tuesday and will continue through Wednesday Night or even early Thursday in association with the second low. As colder air spills into the area from north and northwest to south and southeast, the rain will mix with and then change over to freezing rain across at least parts of the area Tuesday Night and Wednesday and continuing into Wednesday Night. Accumulating ice is likely, especially along our northwest counties. However, additional counties could also eventually be affected if the colder air plunges further south and southeast. This may eventually include the Charleston, Beaufort and Savannah areas. It is still a little too early for any watches, but if the situation is still the same on Monday, a Winter Storm Watch will be necessary.

Freezing Rain Accumulations
It is still a little too early to determine exact amounts at this time given some uncertainty on the strength of the cold air, but our latest thinking is that 1/10 to 1/4 inch of ice is likely along the northwest tier of our forecast area, with trace amounts further southeast. However, accumulating freezing rain is certainly possible further south and east, and amounts in the northwest may even be higher.

Timing
Freezing rain will begin late Tuesday Night and continue into Wednesday Night.

Locations
All of southern South Carolina and southeast Georgia may eventually be impacted, at least to some extent. As of late this afternoon the highest chances for accumulating ice will be for the following counties: Berkeley, Dorchester, Colleton, Hampton, Allendale, Screven and Jenkins. However, the colder air may penetrate further south and east, and ice may also become a problem for other counties.

Impacts
Significant impacts are possible, especially in regards to travel due to ice accumulations. Roads, bridges and/or overpasses may be shut down. Ice accumulation may bring down trees, tree branches and power lines. Power outages are likely.

Confidence
Our confidence is increasing that winter weather will impact the area, with highest confidence across our northwest tier of inland counties. However, there is still the potential for winter weather to impact locations further south and east, including the coastal counties, where confidence is currently moderate. Impacts could be significant, with the most likely weather hazard being freezing rain (ice).

Staying informed
Please continue to monitor the latest from your National Weather Service in Charleston, SC on this developing winter weather situation. Join us for our routine weekly briefing Monday morning, and also for any potential winter weather briefings during the early and middle parts of the upcoming week. As always, for more information...
- Visit our local office web page: www.weather.gov/chs
- Follow us on Twitter (and/or Facebook if you have an account)
- Get the latest on NWSChat (if you have an account)
- Call our 24/7 Operations at ANY Time.
- NOAA Weather Radio All Hazards

Regards,
Pete Mohlin and John Quagliariello
Senior Meteorologists
NWS Charleston, SC
http://weather.gov/chs

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